Rasmus Pank Roulund

I am an economist at the European Central Bank and I recently received a phd in economics from the European University Institute in Florence.

I am interested in expectation formation, investment decisions macroeconomic experimental economic and empirical io and especially enjoy the challenges associated with very large data

You can find my full cv here (or as a pdf). You could also check my sparsely populated blog, currently mainly related to gnu Emacs.

An image of me


Asset Price Dynamics and Endogenous Trader Overconfidence (PDF)

Using a new experimental design, we show how asset prices and the overconfidence of traders co-move; when asset prices go up, overconfidence rises, and when asset prices go down, overconfidence falls. Consistent with models of endogenous overconfidence (Daniel et al., 1998; Gervais and Odean, 2001), we observe that becoming successful makes traders overconfident, yet becoming overconfident does not necessarily make traders successful. Finally, we confirm existing experimental evidence that high cognitive ability results in better market performance.

Endogenous overconfidence, behavioral finance, experiment

Currently under review. Supplementary page.

Certainty and Decisions in Experimental Asset Markets (PDF)

This paper examines how traders’ confidence and market confidence affect outcomes in an experimental asset market with known fundamental values. In this type of market, prices usually present large deviations from the fundamental value; in other words, bubbles are known to occur. We measure beliefs by asking participants to forecast the one-period-ahead price as a discrete probability mass distribution. We define confidence as the inverse of the dispersion of beliefs for each trader, and also create a market-wide measure of this to measure agreement across traders. We find that confidence affects price-formation and is also important in explaining the dynamics and size of the bubble. Moreover, as traders are successful they become increasingly certain of their beliefs, even if these beliefs are on non-fundamental values, thus increasing the likelihood of price bubbles.

Confidence, expectations, bubbles, experimental asset markets, overconfidence

Published in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, October 2020.

Software contributions

I am a supporter of Free Software and I contribute to gnu Emacs and in particular Org mode.


You can contact me by email: .